Izindleko ze-Semiconductor capital yehla ngo-2024

UMongameli waseMelika uJoe Biden ngoLwesithathu umemezele isivumelwano sokuhlinzeka i-Intel ngoxhaso oluqondile lwama-dollar ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-8.5 kanye namarandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-11 emalimboleko ngaphansi kweChip and Science Act. I-Intel izosebenzisa imali ukwenza izindwangu e-Arizona, Ohio, New Mexico nase-Oregon. Njengoba sabika ku-newsletter yethu yango-December 2023, uMthetho we-CHIPS uhlinzeka ngesamba sezigidigidi ezingama-$52.7 embonini ye-semiconductor yase-US, okuhlanganisa namabhiliyoni angu-39 emali yokukhuthaza ukukhiqiza. Ngaphambi kwesibonelelo se-Intel, i-CHIPS Act yayimemezele isamba semali engu-$1.7 billion yezibonelelo ku-GlobalFoundries, Microchip Technology kanye ne-BAE Systems, ngokusho kweSemiconductor Industry Association (SIA).

Izabelo ezingaphansi koMthetho we-CHIPS zihambe kancane, ukunikezwa kokuqala akuzange kumenyezelwe kwaze kwaba ngaphezu konyaka ngemva kokuphasiswa kwakho. Amanye amaphrojekthi amakhulu ase-US abambezelekile ngenxa yokukhokha kancane. I-TSMC iphinde yaphawula ukuthi kwakunzima ukuthola abasebenzi bokwakha abaqeqeshiwe. U-Intel uthe ukubambezeleka kungenxa yokwehla kokuthengisa.

Amanye amazwe nawo abele izimali zokuthuthukisa ukukhiqizwa kwe-semiconductor. NgoSepthemba 2023, i-European Union yamukela umthetho we-European Chip Act, ohlinzeka ngama-euro ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-43 (amaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-47) wokutshalwa kwezimali komphakathi nokwangasese embonini ye-semiconductor. NgoNovemba 2023, iJapan yabela ama-yen ama-2 trillion (ama-dollar ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-13) ukuze kwenziwe ama-semiconductor. I-Taiwan yenze umthetho ngoJanuwari 2024 wokuhlinzeka ngekhefu lentela ezinkampanini ze-semiconductor. ISouth Korea yaphasisa umthethosivivinywa ngoMashi 2023 wokuhlinzeka ngekhefu lentela lobuchwepheshe bamasu, okuhlanganisa nama-semiconductors. I-China kulindeleke ukuthi isungule isikhwama esixhaswe nguhulumeni esingu-$40 billion ukuze ixhase imboni yayo ye-semiconductor.

Uyini umbono wezindleko ezinkulu (CapEx) embonini ye-semiconductor kulo nyaka? Umthetho we-CHIPS uhloselwe ukugqugquzela ukusetshenziswa kwemali enkulu, kodwa umthelela omningi ngeke uzwakale kuze kube ngemva kuka-2024. Imakethe ye-semiconductor yehle ngamaphesenti adumazayo angu-8.2 ngonyaka odlule, futhi izinkampani eziningi ziqaphile ngokusebenzisa imali enkulu ngo-2024. Thina kwa-Semiconductor Intelligence lilinganisela inani eliphelele le-semiconductor capex ka-2023 ku-$169 billion, yehle ngo-7% kusukela ngo-2022. zibikezela ukwehla ngo-2% kwezindleko ezinkulu ngo-2024.

Isilinganiso sezindleko ze-semiconductor capital size sisukela phezulu ngama-34% siye kwephansi ngo-12%. Isilinganiso seminyaka emihlanu siphakathi kuka-28% no-18%. Kuso sonke isikhathi kusukela ngo-1980 kuya ku-2023, izindleko eziphelele zezindleko zimele ama-23% emakethe ye-semiconductor. Naphezu kokuguquguquka, ukuthambekela kwesikhathi eside kwesilinganiso kuye kwafana. Ngokusekelwe ekukhuleni okuqinile kwemakethe okulindelekile kanye nokuncipha kwe-capex, silindele ukuthi isilinganiso sehle sisuka ku-32% ngo-2023 siye ku-27% ngo-2024.

Izibikezelo eziningi zokukhula kwemakethe ye-semiconductor ngo-2024 zisebangeni lika-13% kuya ku-20%. Isibikezelo sethu se-semiconductor intelligence singu-18%. Uma ukusebenza kuka-2024 kuqine njengoba bekulindelekile, inkampani ingase yenyuse izinhlelo zayo zezindleko ezinkulu ngokuhamba kwesikhathi. Singabona ushintsho oluhle ku-semiconductor capex ngo-2024.